Ka 10:00 nako ea Beijing, Mopresidente oa Russia Vladimir Putin o ile a re o entse qeto ea ho etsa ts'ebetso e khethehileng ea sesole sebakeng sa Donbas se ka bochabela ho Ukraine.Hang ka mor'a moo, ho ile ha utloahala liqhomane sebakeng sa Boryspil Airport se Kiev, motse-moholo oa Ukraine, Kyiv, Odessa, Kharkov, Kramatorsk le Berdyansk, ho tšoaea linaha tsa Russia le Europe sebakeng sa Europe.Khohlano lipakeng tsa linaha tsena tse peli e eketsehile ka mokhoa o akaretsang.Ukraine eohle e boemong ba ntoa.
Ho tloha nakong ea khatiso, theko ea tekano ea khase ea tlhaho ea Europe TTF e nyolohetse ho li-euro tse 114 ka MWh.Ke liphetoho tsa mofuta ofe tse tebileng tseo ho hlaha ha ketsahalo ea Russia-Ukraine ho tla tlisa khoebo ea matla a hloekileng lapeng le linaheng tse ling, 'me ho tla ama joang lebelo la ho nkela matla a setso ho liindasteri tsa matla a photovoltaic le a moea?Hona joale, ho lebeletsoe hore litheko tse tala tsa lihlahisoa tse ling tsa photovoltaic li tla phahama, 'me tlhokahalo ea moea le letsatsi Europe le libakeng tse ling e tla eketseha ka potlako.
Litheko tse khethehileng tsa khase li ka nyoloha, matla a ho tsamaisa thepa a tiile 'me litheko li lula li le holimo
Ha e le hantle, Ukraine ke mohloli oa likhase tse khethehileng bakeng sa tlhahiso ea semiconductor ea lefats'e, kahoo ka mor'a ntoa ena e tla ama khaello ea likhase tse khethehileng tsa elektronike tse sebelisoang ho li-semiconductors.Lihlahisoa tsa semiconductor le tsona ke lisebelisoa tsa bohlokoa tse tala bakeng sa lihlahisoa tsa tlhahiso ea photovoltaic tse kang li-inverters.Na ho tla ba le letoto la likarabelo nakong e tlang?
Ukraine e na le karolo e phahameng ea limmaraka tsa neon, xenon, le krypton, 'me khohlano e tla etsa hore lisebelisoa tse ling tse khethehileng tsa tlhahiso ea khase li se ke tsa sebetsa kapa tsa senyeha.
Bahlahisi ba 'maloa ba semiconductor ba boletse hore hobane likhase tse khethehileng li atisa ho fumanoa linaheng tse ngata, ho akarelletsa le Ukraine, ha ho na khaello ea lihlahisoa ka nako e khutšoanyane.CEO oa Micron Melotta o boletse puisanong e khethehileng le Bloomberg News hore karolo ea khase e ntle e tsoa Ukraine, empa lethathamo le leholo le lokisitsoe, 'me ho bohlokoa le ho feta, k'hamphani e na le mehloli e mengata ea phepelo, ho kenyeletsoa United States, European Union le Asia.O lumela hore k'hamphani e ntse e tsoela pele ho beha maemo leihlo ka hloko mme o tšepa hore e tla ba bonolo.SK Hynix e boetse e senotse hore e sirelelitse lethathamo le leholo la likhase tse inert, ka hona ha ho na lebaka la ho tšoenyeha haholo.Empa leha tlhokahalo e batla e lekana le phepelo, ho ke ke ha qojoa hore likhase tse ling tse ntle li tla bona keketseho ea litheko.Theko ea neon, sehlahisoa, e ile ea phahama ka mor'a ntoa pakeng tsa Russia le Ukraine ka 2014, ha theko e ne e le $ 3,500 ka cubic meter, ka makhetlo a fetang 10 ho feta pele.
Ka ho eketseha ha likhohlano lipakeng tsa linaha tsena tse peli, theko ea khauta e nyolohile haholo.Lintho tse ka sehloohong tse tala tsa lihlahisoa tse tloaelehileng tsa silevera tse sebelisoang ka matla a letsatsi ke phofo ea silevera, e amanang le theko ea silevera ea London.Ha ho na litaba tsa ho phahama ho pharaletseng ha litheko tsa silevera hajoale.Ka hona, ka nako e khuts'oane, ha ho na pontšo ea hore litheko tsa silevera tsa peista li nyoloha.
Ketsahalo ea Russia-Ukraine e tla ba le phello efe ho lipalangoang tsa lijana, haholo-holo bakeng sa lihlahisoa tse ncha tsa matla?
Ho ea ka bashebelli ba Fang, litheko tsa thepa ea leoatleng li tla lula li le holimo.Lilemong tse peli tse fetileng, theko e nyolohile ka makhetlo a 4, 5 kapa ho feta.Ho phahama ha morao tjena ha theko ea oli ho ka ama ho eketseha ha theko ea diesel, thepa e tala bakeng sa lipalangoang tsa lijana, empa le haeba mong'a sekepe a ka eketsa theko ho sena, e ke ke ea ama theko e phahameng ea thepa e teng.Matla a ke ke a ba teng ka bongata bo boholo.Leha ho le joalo, index ea theko ea thepa ea thepa e ke ke ea theoha ka nako e khutšoanyane, bokhoni ba ho tsamaisa thepa ka kakaretso bo tla tsoela pele ho matlafatsoa, 'me ketane ea thepa ea thepa e tla ba boemong bo thata.Ka lehlakoreng le leng, ka lebaka la ho feto-fetoha ha Omicron, seoa sa linaha tse ngata tsa Europe se ile sa tsoela pele ho ata, 'me ho bokellana ha linyeoe tse sa tsoa fumanoa ho ile ha boloka boemo ba ho romela thepa e le boemong bo phahameng,' me 'maraka oa ho tsamaisa thepa o ne o le motle haholo.E le ho arabela kotsing ea lintoa tsa lehae, Europe e ka eketsa pokello ea thepa, kahoo ea tsamaisa tlhokahalo e akaretsang ea lik'hilomithara tse ngata tsa nautical ho eketseha.Ka kakaretso, bokhoni ba lijana bo tla haella, 'me monyetla oa ho qoela ha litheko tsa leoatle ha o phahame, mme ho na le monyetla oa ho boloka maemo a teng kapa ho eketseha hanyane.
Matla a moea a photovoltaic, joalo-joalo, phetoho ea matla a tsosolositsoeng lefatšeng ka bophara e ntse e eketseha
Ho qala ha potoloho ena ea ntoa ea lehae lipakeng tsa Russia le Ukraine ho tla ba le phello e ntle ho potlakisa matla a macha ho nkela matla a setso sebaka.Letsatsi lohle kajeno, metšoasong e mecha ea matla e bonts'itse ho eketseha.Sehlopha sa Zhongli, Sungrow, Trina Solar, Risen Energy, Foster, JinkoSolar, JA Technology, LONGi, GoodWe, Chint Electric, Zhonghuan, le Jolywood kaofela li ile tsa phahama qetellong.PV 50ETF e fumane 1.53%.
Litheko tsa khase ea tlhaho li nyolohile morao tjena.Tsena hase litaba tse monate sebakeng sa Europe, moo theko ea khase ea tlhaho e nyolohileng ka makhetlo a ka bang mane selemong se fetileng.Hona joale, karolo ea boraro ea khase ea tlhaho Europe e tsoa khase ea tlhaho, 'me geopolitics e ekelitse bothata ba phepelo hape.Ho tloha ka hora ea bone mantsiboea kajeno, litheko tsa Dutch TTF tsa benchmark tsa khase ea tlhaho li ile tsa phahama bakeng sa seboka sa bone se latellanang, se nyoloha hoo e ka bang 41% ka letsatsi le le leng.Mopresidente oa US Joe Biden o boetse a re o tla nka mehato e meng ea kotlo khahlanong le Russia.Likotlo life kapa life tse thibelang ho fihlella ha Russia licheleteng tsa kantle ho naha li ka nyolla limmaraka tsa oli, khase le thepa e kang tšepe le lijalo.
Ho itšetleha ka khase ea tlhaho ea lehae Europe ho phahame haholo, ho fihla ho 90%.Ka hona, motsotsong ona ha theko ea khase ea tlhaho e ntse e phahama, basebelisi ba bangata ba indasteri, ba matla le ba futhumatsang ba tloaetseng ho sebelisa khase ea tlhaho ba tla batla litsela tse sireletsehileng tsa ho rarolla litlhoko tsa bona.Ho nkeloa sebaka ha mehloli e mecha ea matla e kang matla a letsatsi ho tla potlakisoa.
Wood Mackenzie o bontšitse hore ka ho eketseha ha matla a feto-fetohang, Europe e na le likhetho tse 'nè bakeng sa ho leka-lekanya ts'ebetso ea marang-rang: metsi a pumped, limela tsa matla a matla a khase ea tlhaho.Rory McCarthy, mohlahlobi e moholo oa setsi sena, o itse, "Bakeng sa lits'ebetso tsa sejoale-joale tsa motlakase, lifeme tsa khase ea tlhaho li ka fumana matla a felletseng ka metsotso e 'meli,' me li ka sebetsa ka karolo e 'ngoe ka katleho e eketsehileng' me li ka fana ka matla bakeng sa nako e sa lekanyetsoang e tsoelang pele ea tlhahiso.Sebaka sena ke phepelo e sa sitisoeng ea khase ea tlhaho. ”
Empa ka 2030, polokelo ea matla ea betri e tla feta litlhoro tsa khase ea tlhaho e le khetho e theko e tlaase ea ho leka-lekanya marang-rang a Europe.Bokhoni ba ho boloka matla ho pholletsa le likarolo tsohle tsa Europe bo lebelletsoe ho hola ho tloha ho 3GW ea hajoale (ntle le hydro pumped) ho ea ho 26GW ka 2030 le 89GW ka 2040. McCarthy o hlokometse hore ka 2040, Europe e ka ba le 320GWh ea matla a ho boloka matla a fumanehang ho leka-lekanya tsamaiso ea matla. .Bongata ba bona bo tla tsoa lits'ebetsong tsa polokelo ea matla ea betri ea lehlakoreng la basebelisi."Litšenyehelo tsa ho fehla motlakase ka oli le ka mashala le tsona li tla nyoloha, 'me maano a ho ntša li-net-zero qetellong a tla shebana le ho felisoa ha litšebeletso tsohle tsa mebaraka ea motlakase," McCarthy o itse.
Feme ea bahlahlobisisi ea Bloomberg New Energy Finance e kile ea fana ka tlaleho ea phuputso, e ileng ea bontša: United States, ha lisebelisoa tsa ho fehla matla a letsatsi li ntse li tsoela pele ho ata le ho ja nako ea ts'ebetso ea lifeme tsa motlakase oa khase ea tlhaho, ho hlokahala hore ho be le lifeme tsa motlakase oa khase ea tlhaho hore li qale hape. koala khafetsa.Sena se eketsa litšenyehelo tsa bona tsa ts'ebetso ka lebaka la litlhoko tsa mafura le ho senyeha ha tsona.
Hona joale, ha theko ea khase ea tlhaho e phahame haholo, bo-ramatsete ba tla ba masene ho etsa qeto ea hore na ba ka fetola mokhoa o mocha oa ho fehla motlakase ho qoba bothata ba thepa ena e tala ea theko e phahameng.
Ke ’nete hore barekisi ba khase ea tlhaho kantle ho naha ba leqe ho bona boemo bona bo tsoela pele.Ba tla boela ba fumane litsela tsa ho etsa hore theko ea khase e be holimo ka mokhoa o somang, ho seng joalo ho romela khase ea tlhaho kantle ho naha e tla fetoha bothata hang ha boemo ba ho lahloa ha liindasteri le ho lahloa ha motlakase bo thehoa.
Ha ho bapisoa le mohato oa pele oa ntoa ea Russia-Ukraine ka 2014 (January 19, 2014 ho ea ho March 20, 2014), ts'ebetsong ea lihlopha tse kholo tsa thepa, theko ea thepa e nyolohile haholo, e fihla ho 7,6%.Theko ea oli e tala e nyolohile ka 4.2%, 'me theko ea khauta e nyolohile ka 6.1% (ho tloha Haitong Securities.) Theko e tsoelang pele e phahameng ea oli e tala e tla boela e etse hore tšebeliso ea likoloi tsa motlakase, likoloi tse hloekileng, joalo-joalo e be tsa bohlokoa haholo.
Mabapi le tsoelo-pele ea nakong e tlang ea matla a macha, haholo-holo indasteri ea photovoltaic, selemong sena e tla tsoela pele ho ntlafatsa.Ka la 23 February, lihlopha tse amehang li ile tsa bolela esale pele hore matla a photovoltaic a sa tsoa kenngoa ka 2022 a ka eketseha ho feta 75GW, e ka bang 75-90GW.Boleng bona bo bapisoa le lintlha tsa Tsamaiso ea Naha ea Matla - matla a photovoltaic a sa tsoa kenngoa a naha ka 2021 e tla ba ka 55GW, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 36% -64%.Ka nako e ts'oanang, ho hakanngoa hore ho tloha ka 2022 ho ea ho 2025, palo e ncha ea selemo le selemo ea photovoltaic e kentsoeng e tla fihla ho 83-99GW.Ho ea ka lintlha tse tsoang ho Lekala la Indasteri le Theknoloji ea Boitsebiso, ka 2021, tlhahiso ea photovoltaic ea naha ea heso ea polysilicon, li-wafers tsa silicon, lisele le li-module li tla fihla ho lithane tse 505,000, 227GW, 198GW le 182GW, ka ho latellana, ho fihla ho 27.5%, 40.6%. 46.9%, le 46.1% selemo le selemo.Thekiso ea selemo le selemo ea lihlahisoa tsa photovoltaic e feta liranta tse limilione tse likete tse 28,4 tsa US.
Ho ea ka tlaleho ea morao-rao ea lipatlisiso tsa CITIC Construction Investment, matla a lehae a photovoltaic a kentsoeng ka January 2022 a fetile litebello, 'me matla a macha a ho kenya photovoltaic naheng a feta 7GW, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 200%.Har'a bona, matla a sa tsoa kenngoa a photovoltaics a ajoang e ne e le 4.5GW, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 250%;matla a sa tsoa kenngoa a photovoltaics e bohareng e ne e le 2.5GW, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 150%.Lisebelisoa tsa silicon tse holimo, li-wafers tsa silicon, libeteri tse tlaase, li-module, hammoho le li-inverters le lisebelisoa tse thusang, lihokelo tsohle tsa ketane ea indasteri hangata li tletse ka litaelo, 'me sekhahla sa ts'ebetso ha se theohe empa sea phahama.Tloaelo ea selemo sena e ka 'na ea se ke ea "fokolla".
Ha re ngola sena, re tšepa hore batho ba Ukraine ba ka itšireletsa le malapa a bona, ba qeta nako ena e khethehileng ba sireletsehile, 'me ba khutle kapa ba fumane lehae la khotso kapele kamoo ho ka khonehang.
Nako ea poso: Mar-12-2022